深刻的教誨老師的淚優(yōu)秀作文
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
解析
Step One
文章共4句話(huà),各自的核心意思是:
1、美國(guó)東北部大多數(shù)家庭用燃油取暖;
2、上個(gè)取暖季經(jīng)歷了90天低于常溫的氣候,以及未來(lái)將會(huì)持續(xù)若干年;
3、此外,因?yàn)槿丝谠鲩L(zhǎng),許多新的房屋正在被建造;
4、所以,我們預(yù)測(cè)燃油需求會(huì)增加以及投資C公司,它的業(yè)務(wù)之一是銷(xiāo)售家庭用燃油。
Step Two
文章的結(jié)構(gòu)是:
1、是背景;
2、3推導(dǎo)出4;
Step Three
尋找邏輯錯(cuò)誤
a. 數(shù)據(jù)問(wèn)題:90天不一定長(zhǎng);
b. 論據(jù)含糊:專(zhuān)家預(yù)測(cè);
c. 時(shí)間外推:許多新房屋也會(huì)用燃油取暖;
d. 利潤(rùn)問(wèn)題:C公司會(huì)很好。
難點(diǎn)總結(jié)
本題難點(diǎn)在于:從字面上找到的邏輯錯(cuò)誤沒(méi)法用常規(guī)的方式攻擊,需要轉(zhuǎn)變思路。然而萬(wàn)變不離其宗,明白邏輯錯(cuò)誤的原理,合適很容易解決問(wèn)題的。
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